WHAT IF?

I am not into alternative history, an intriguing genre but not one that I am qualified to enter. That said, my readers might be interested in an interview that I gave for a very well illustrated book to be published shortly dealing with ‘What Ifs? of history. I was asked to consider a successful German invasion of England in WW2. In answer to the questions posed, here is what I wrote:

AT WHAT STAGE OF THE WAR WOULD THE CHANCE OF SUCCESS HAVE BEEN AT ITS GREATEST AND WHY?

We know, from the German planning, that an invasion could not have succeeded. Generaloberst Franz Halder, chief of the general staff of the German army, says in his diary that he knew an invasion could not succeed when his staff informed him that they would need to transport 60,000 horses in the first lift. The German navy knew that they could not prevail against the Royal Navy, and the suggestion that troops could be conveyed by Rhine barges, rather than non-existent landing craft was dismissed as impracticable across the Channel. The Luftwaffe had to admit that they could not achieve air superiority across the Channel. Hermann Göring said that if he had three airborne divisions to throw across in 1940 he could have done it, but he only had one airborne division, and even three would have withered on the vine when they could not be reinforced.

However, for the purpose of this article let us assume that the assets for Operation Sea Lion were available to the German armed forces. In that case the best time to invade would have been after the Dunkirk evacuation in June 1940, when although the Royal Navy had lifted around 400,000 troops from the beaches of France, most of their heavy equipment – artillery pieces, tanks, vehicles – had to be left behind, and there was only one fully equipped division in England.

WHAT TACTICS AND RESOURCES WOULD BE REQUIRED TO SUCCEED?

Firstly, the Germans would have had to obtain air superiority over the Channel so that the invasion fleet could not be attacked by the Royal Air Force. This might have been achieved if the Luftwaffe had been able to knock out the Chain Home radar system and the airfields and aircraft factories. The Chain Home system – which was very vulnerable to air attack – gave early warning of the approach of German bombers, giving the RAF fighters time to get airborne and take position above the bomber stream. Had the Luftwaffe kept on attacking the same airfields and factories, rather than trying to attack too many and not returning to those first attacked, thus giving the British time to repair bomb damage, they could have overcome the RAF. Secondly, the German navy would have required landing craft or troop transport of some sort capable of coping with the unpredictable weather in the Channel.  Ideally, the invasion force should land on the beaches between Folkestone and Margate, but it might be that a Luftwaffe airborne division could have captured a port, probably Dover, allowing troop transports to dock in the absence of landing craft. As the infantry divisions in the German army were horse drawn, they would have had to land sufficient Panzer divisions to give them mobility and firepower once ashore. As most of the German armour was suffering from track mileage problems after the Battle of France, a mammoth logistic effort (at which the Germans were very good) would have been required.

HOW WOULD THE INVASION BE CONSOLIDATED AND SECURED AND WHAT WOULD ANY RESISTANCE LOOK LIKE?

Once ashore the important thing would be to get off the beach as soon as possible and go for London. If the capital, as the seat of government and the residence of the King, were captured then the rest would be simply mopping up. The German army was trained to fight a war of manoeuvre and to avoid sieges, so they would probably reduce London from the air and by artillery fire before sending troops in. Resupply and evacuation of battle casualties would require the sea route across the Channel to be kept open, a mammoth task for the German navy against a numerically far superior Royal Navy.  That notwithstanding, once it looked as if the invasion was going to succeed then the navy would withdraw to Canada, along with the royal family. Despite the inspiring rhetoric of Churchill, once the one Canadian division in England and the British divisions being re-equipped after Dunkirk had been overcome – as they would have been – resistance would be minimal. The myth of the Home Guard – boys and old men equipped with a variety of obsolete weapons – is just that, a myth. The groups that were supposed to lie low and emerge to attack the Germans in the rear would have achieved nothing, and most of the pill boxes and bunkers built over southern England were of no tactical use, only built to make the civilian builders feel they were contributing to the war effort.

WHAT IMPACT WOULD IT HAVE ON HITLER’S OVERALL PLANS FOR THE WAR?

Without having to worry about Britain the Germans could have concentrated all their resources against the Soviet Union. The North African campaign would not have happened, nor would there be the battle for Crete or the need to defend Sicily and Italy. Some troops would have had to have been stationed in England to deal with any clandestine resistance, but Spain would by now have joined the war on Germany’s side (Franco consistently told Hitler that once England was dealt with he would join, but in the meantime he needed England’s trade). Some waverers would also declare for Germany, including Vichy France and possibly Turkey. South Africa might well forswear its position in the British Empire and overthrow Prime Minister Smuts and the pro-British government. Given that, and the absence of the Royal Navy Arctic Convoys supplying the USSR, Germany would almost certainly defeat Russia or at the very least bring it to the negotiating table.

WHERE WOULD THE USA STAND?

The US ambassador to the UK, Joseph Kennedy (father of JFK), had consistently reported to Washington that the UK would lose the war, and that the USA should remain neutral. With a successful invasion he would have been vindicated (in reality he was out of step with FDR and recalled in November 1940). There was, and is, a strong tendency towards isolationism in the USA and in any case, the USA was far more concerned about Japanese intentions than those of Germany. Whether the US would have recognised the rump British government in Canada is a moot point – it probably would have – but might well have demanded the ceding, or at least the leasing, of the ships of the Royal Navy, with or without their crews, in return. The US would not have declared war on Germany in support of a defeated Britain. With the UK out of the war there would have been no need for Hitler to declare war on the USA (as in reality he did in December 1941), and the US would only have had to concern itself with the Japanese. As the Japanese would be able to occupy Burma, Hong Kong, Singapore, French Indochina, and the Dutch East Asian colonies without fighting for them and thus have access to the raw materials they lacked in their homeland, they need not have provoked war with the USA. Although the USA opposed the Japanese invasion of China they would be unlikely to go to war over it, and the Pacific War would never have happened.

WHAT WOULD POST-INVASION BRITAIN LOOK LIKE?

With Western Europe, the UK and the USSR conquered, and without any involvement in the Pacific, German occupation would have been firm, but as in the Channel Islands, fair. In due time the NSDAP would have ditched their more extreme policies and Hitler would eventually have died in his bed to be replaced by a more amenable dictator. Edward VIII might have been persuaded to reoccupy the throne, provided the Germans recognised his wife as queen, and some local autonomy would have been permitted. It is debatable whether German policy towards the Jews would be applied in the UK. In the German-occupied Channel Islands, Jews with German nationality were removed to concentration camps, but those with British nationality were left unmolested. Germany would continue the work that the British had already done on the development of the atomic bomb but had not had time to pass to the USA, and would have developed nuclear weapons at least by the 1950s, well in advance of any American development of the same. On balance, Europeans and Britons, with the exception of those of the Jewish faith, would have been better off under National Socialist Germany than under Russian rule.