THOUGHTS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE Observing the Russian build-up of troops in the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus during the winter of 2021/22, most of us initially assumed this to be a means of pressurising Ukraine to give up its tentative moves towards an alignment with Europe rather than with Russia. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 Russia had always regarded Ukraine as within its sphere of influence. Russia was already supporting separatist elements in Donetsk and Luhansk, and it was on 17 July 2014 that a civilian airliner, a Boeing 777 of Malaysian Airways, was shot down over the contested area of Ukraine killing all 283 passengers and crew. We know that the weapon used to bring down the aircraft was a 9K37 BUK (NATO designation), ground launched anti-aircraft missile system. The question was – who did it? While the armed forces of both Russia and Ukraine were equipped with the BUK, it was in neither country’s interests to shoot down an unarmed aircraft of a state not involved in the conflict and proceeding along a recognised and authorised air corridor. Again, the state of training in both counties was good enough to identify a civilian aircraft from one with hostile intent, so it is unlikely that either Russia or Ukraine was the culprit. The most likely answer, it seems to me, is that the separatists, having been provided with at least one BUK unit by Russia, had manned it with ill-trained amateurs who, spotting an approaching aircraft on radar, took it to be of the Ukraine air force and pressed the button. One suspects that the firer may have been taken out and shot, for rightly or wrongly the Russians got the blame.
THOUGHTS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE - PART TWO
THOUGHTS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE - PART TWO
THOUGHTS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE - PART TWO
THOUGHTS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE Observing the Russian build-up of troops in the borders of Ukraine and in Belarus during the winter of 2021/22, most of us initially assumed this to be a means of pressurising Ukraine to give up its tentative moves towards an alignment with Europe rather than with Russia. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 Russia had always regarded Ukraine as within its sphere of influence. Russia was already supporting separatist elements in Donetsk and Luhansk, and it was on 17 July 2014 that a civilian airliner, a Boeing 777 of Malaysian Airways, was shot down over the contested area of Ukraine killing all 283 passengers and crew. We know that the weapon used to bring down the aircraft was a 9K37 BUK (NATO designation), ground launched anti-aircraft missile system. The question was – who did it? While the armed forces of both Russia and Ukraine were equipped with the BUK, it was in neither country’s interests to shoot down an unarmed aircraft of a state not involved in the conflict and proceeding along a recognised and authorised air corridor. Again, the state of training in both counties was good enough to identify a civilian aircraft from one with hostile intent, so it is unlikely that either Russia or Ukraine was the culprit. The most likely answer, it seems to me, is that the separatists, having been provided with at least one BUK unit by Russia, had manned it with ill-trained amateurs who, spotting an approaching aircraft on radar, took it to be of the Ukraine air force and pressed the button. One suspects that the firer may have been taken out and shot, for rightly or wrongly the Russians got the blame.