NATO WITHOUT THE USA? It is always wise to hope for the best while preparing for the worst. It would seem that the forthcoming Presidential Election in the USA will be fought between an octogenarian on the brink of dementia and a septuagenarian rabble rouser. At this distance the smart money is on Trump who, however apalling he may look to outsiders, may well succeed in regaining the presidency he lost in 2020. Trump’s recent perorations on the subject of European defence where he appeared to disassociate himself, and by extension his administration should he become president, from Article Five of the NATO treaty have caused alarm in European capitals, as well they might. Of course, Trump has frequently made statements that are palpably untrue – he claimed that the turnout of spectators for his inauguration in 2021 was the largest ever, when it was obvious to any observer that it was probably the smallest for many years. He may bluster and threaten to leave NATO, or abandon Article Five, but be dissuaded by wiser counsels around him. We should, however, work on the assumption that Trump means what he said and that in the event of another Trump presidency Russian aggression on a NATO member would not automatically lead to American involvement. Already further funding for Ukraine is held up by Republican politicking and that situation may not improve.
The first and ongoing challenge is to increase munitions manufacturing throughout the Alliance. I expect that line the U.S., Europe had no reserve production capacity because no one could agree on who would pay for it and main the unused machinery. The count of boots on the ground may be augmented by the number of drones but reality suggests that we have not yet crossed the intellectual hurdle as to whether drones are rounds or combatants.
Yes. We’re 🇺🇸 turning inward here, not unlike the Romanoff and Qing reforms of a century ago… yes… internal reforms summon us.
Yes. That’s it.
It’s not worst case scenario it’s happening.
Cheers!
At this point it’s not clear that Trump will be able to afford to be president. The salary won’t be enough to pay his bills.
The first and ongoing challenge is to increase munitions manufacturing throughout the Alliance. I expect that line the U.S., Europe had no reserve production capacity because no one could agree on who would pay for it and main the unused machinery. The count of boots on the ground may be augmented by the number of drones but reality suggests that we have not yet crossed the intellectual hurdle as to whether drones are rounds or combatants.