MORE THOUGHTS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE
MORE THOUGHTS ON UKRAINE
Now that the Russians have withdrawn from Kherson, which effectively prevents any hope they may have had of linking up with the separatists in the east of Moldova, the land fronts have stabilised, at least for the moment, while the Russian army regroups. The threat of a tactical nuclear strike seems to have receded and we have heard no more of Russian claims that Ukraine intended a false flag ‘dirty bomb’ explosion on their own territory. The recent explosion in Poland, which killed two civilians, was almost certainly caused by a soviet-era Ukrainian missile attempting to shoot down a Russian missile, possibly a grad fired from Belarus at Lviv (Lvov as was), or something fired from the Donbas. The small number of T14 Armata tanks have yet to perform on the battlefield and we await to see how effective they may be. Their presence will reinforce President Zelensky’s requests for more modern tanks to replace the T72 they are currently operating.
The main battle tank of both the British and American armies in the Second World War, the M4 Sherman, had a crew of five, but most tanks operated by NATO armies now have a four-man crew – commander, driver, gunner and radio operator/loader. The Russian main battle tank in the Second War was the T34 with a four-man crew. For many years the Russian army tried to develop an automatic loader for their tank guns, the intention being that if the operation of the radio was taken on by the commander, the crew could be reduced to three. After many abortive experiments they have now produced an automatic loader that works, and both the T72 and the T14 Armata have three-man crews. What they seem to have missed is that even with the most modern tanks there is a huge amount of maintenance that needs to be done, usually at night when even with modern night vision equipment tanks are limited in what they can do. They have to be refuelled, and while this might be done by a bowser arriving on the position, more often it will be done by filling up from around sixty jerricans[1]. The tracks may have to be tightened, the gun will have to be cleaned, the optics re-calibrated, smoke projectors re-loaded, ammunition stored, and someone has to prepare food for the crew and at least one man will have to be on sentry duty. To do all this with only three men puts a very heavy burden on each, and it is likely that tank maintenance will suffer and crew fatigue increase.
The war also brings up some legal issues. During the Second World war the USSR was not a signatory to the Geneva conventions and was not therefore entitled to their protection. Post war the USSR did sign, and that ratification devolved to the newly independent ex-soviet republics when the USSR ceased to exist. Both Russia and Ukraine are therefore signatories, but in 2019 Russia withdrew from Article 90 Protocol 1, which allows for entry into a state by independent investigators when war crimes are alleged. Currently there is clear evidence that Russia is breaching the convention by ill-treating prisoners, but Ukraine is breaching them too, not by ill-treatment but by ‘exposing them to public gaze’ – allowing them to be filmed telephoning their mothers, pleading for assistance and the like.
It is also worth considering whether a column of vehicles trundling through Poland carrying British anti-tank weapons for delivery to Ukraine is a legitimate military target? I would suggest that it is, and that Russia would legally be entitled to attack it, probably by missiles. Would that then be an infringement of NATO Article 5 leading to NATO being at war with Russia? Mission creep is inevitable in any war situation. It starts with advice, leading to training, then to the supply of weapons of self-defence, then to weapons of offence and then to the provision of troops and full-scale war. We have not yet reached the final stage, but the British army has been ordered to train to fight in Europe. Such need not escalate to a nuclear exchange, for the Cold War stand-off of Mutually Assured Destruction – MAD – would again apply. Food for thought?
President Zelensky will be under pressure to negotiate, but he will not do that unless he can convince his people that they are winning, and Russia will not negotiate unless they consider themselves to have the upper hand. Another difficulty could be that Ukraine will seek to recover the Crimea and, as I have argued, the Crimea is and always has been Russian. A possible answer might be to have internationally implemented referenda in Crimea and the Donbas giving the population the choice of being Russian or Ukrainian. There are people living in the Donbas who genuinely want to be Russian, although many do not, and Ukraine might agree to cede a slice of territory east of the River Dnieper to Russia. The quid pro quo would have to be security guarantees for Ukraine and her fast-track admission to NATO and to the EU. Currently we are a long way from that as a possible solution, and it is vital that the West continues to support Ukraine. It is also vital that Ukrainian hands are clean. Yesterdays’ video purporting to show the shooting of Russian prisoners may well be a Russian fake, but if not, it is essential that Ukraine does not allow her soldiers to emulate the behaviour of their enemies.
More next week
[1] A T72 holds 260 gallons. A British jerrican holds 4 ½ gallons and other nations’ cans are roughly similar.