AND THEN THERE IS THE CRIMEA...
AND THEN THERE IS THE CRIMEA…
For centuries Russia and Turkey were enemies. Russia was expanding south, seeking a warm water port on the Black Sea, regularly nibbling away at the Ottoman lands. Between the 16th and 20th centuries there were no fewer than twelve wars between the two, with Russia acquiring more and more Ottoman territory around the northern half of the Black Sea. An ultimate aim, never realised, was Constantinople, which would have given them control of the Dardanelles and of entry to and egress from the Black Sea. Such was promised by Britain and France to keep Russia in the First World War, but was negated by the Bolshevik victory in the Russian Civil War.
After the sixth Russo-Turkish War (1768 – 1774) Turkey ceded the Crimean Khanate as an independent entity, but dependent upon Russia. In 1783 Catherine the Great’s Russia formally annexed the Crimea, ultimately recognised by Turkey after the seventh war in 1792. As with other territories bordering the Black Sea the Crimea was then populated by ethnic Russian settlers, who soon outnumbered the Crimean Tatars. Thereafter Crimea was regarded as part of Tsarist Russia, becoming a constituent republic of the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic after the defeat of the last stand of Wrangel’s White army, and subsequent massacre of the survivors, there in 1920. During the Second World War the German army captured the Crimea and held it until 1944. After the German withdrawal the Soviets carried out a programme of ‘ethnic cleansing’ which involved banishing the Crimean Tatars to Siberia and Central Asia, partly because many had collaborated with the Germans, but also as a deliberate policy of removing minorities from the border regions. The Crimea was now downgraded to an oblast (county) within Russia.
In 1954 Crimea was transferred to Ukraine, which made complete sense for administrative reasons, being geographically nearer to Ukraine than to Russia proper. As Ukraine was a Soviet Socialist Republic within the USSR this made little difference to status of Crimea.
Then in 1991 the Soviet Union ceased to be. The inefficiency of the command economy, the spiralling amounts spent on defence and increasing nationalist agitation made it impossible for the Union to continue in its present form. The constituent republics were given the option of joining what was now the Russian Federation, or becoming independent. Ukraine opted for independence and after a referendum in Crimea a short lived Republic of Crimea was established, which although still part of Ukraine campaigned for closer links to Russia and more independence from Ukraine. In 1994 the republic was abolished and firmer control by Ukraine was imposed. As there was little doubt that the majority of the inhabitants of Crimea were ethnic Russians, or at least saw themselves as being Russian rather than Ukrainian, it might well have been possible to negotiate the return of Crimea to Russia proper in 1991, but the collapse happened so quickly, and under a certain amount of chaos, that this did not happen.
In 2014 the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, seen by many as being far too close to Russia, was deposed after weeks of demonstrations. Largely as a result of this realignment of Ukraine towards the West, on 27 February 2014 Russian troops, stripped of identification badges, quietly took over vital points in Crimea – TV and radio stations, airports, major road junctions, government buildings and a pro-Russian government was installed. After a referendum, generally regarded as fair and properly conducted[*], supporting incorporation into Russia, Crimea was formally annexed by Russia in March. Already the language of Crimea was Russian, the signs were almost all in Russian (or occasionally English) and when asked what they were most people said Russian, or occasionally Russian and Ukrainian. There is therefore a very strong case for arguing that Crimea is Russian rather than Ukrainian.
There was, however, no justification for Russia encouraging separatism in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, nor for supporting it with troops labelled ‘volunteers’. When in February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine the West rightly saw this as totally unjustified, and the first step towards the restoration of Tsarist and Soviet hegemony over its lost territories. NATO is in full support of Ukraine in the face of this unprovoked aggression and we are training, arming and advising the armed forces of Ukraine. As long as Ukrainian aims are limited to defending itself and recovering those portions of the Donbas and the south coast that are occupied by Russia, there is no reason to suppose that Western resolve will not remain strong. That resolve could weaken, however, should Ukraine include Crimea in the territories it wishes to recover. So far only one Ukraine government official has mentioned recovering Crimea. Ukraine might be well advised to accept the loss of Crimea as a quid pro quo for continued Western support in its war.
[*] By the PEW Research Centre, an independent think tank in the USA.